Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.020356 1.077167 1.135969 1.201494 1.272604 1.347593 1.432846
2026-02-08 0.912572 0.991134 1.075876 1.174514 1.286726 1.411064 1.560176
2026-02-15 0.851445 0.942965 1.044555 1.166527 1.310122 1.475226 1.681515
2026-02-22 0.810920 0.912262 1.027394 1.169198 1.341008 1.544897 1.808959
2026-03-01 0.767759 0.874480 0.997984 1.153268 1.345898 1.580601 1.893995
2026-03-08 0.724947 0.834080 0.962298 1.126280 1.333752 1.592259 1.946655
2026-03-15 0.695481 0.807804 0.941669 1.115683 1.340082 1.625867 2.028050
2026-03-22 0.681552 0.799420 0.941994 1.130518 1.378589 1.702036 2.170411
2026-03-29 0.663328 0.784619 0.933223 1.132662 1.399804 1.755492 2.284053
2026-04-05 0.650828 0.776242 0.931856 1.143824 1.432883 1.826072 2.426233
2026-04-12 0.630716 0.757264 0.915892 1.134576 1.437197 1.856172 2.510228
2026-04-19 0.619760 0.749509 0.913966 1.143708 1.466849 1.923197 2.654051
2026-04-26 0.597253 0.726450 0.891665 1.124931 1.457378 1.934546 2.715112
2026-05-03 0.573905 0.701584 0.866141 1.100674 1.438885 1.931470 2.752971
2026-05-10 0.558530 0.686690 0.853335 1.093406 1.444305 1.964080 2.850751
2026-05-17 0.547728 0.677460 0.847732 1.095839 1.463759 2.018801 2.989388
2026-05-24 0.531531 0.660439 0.830842 1.081325 1.456948 2.031763 3.056835
2026-05-31 0.512690 0.639304 0.807610 1.056717 1.433590 2.016903 3.073641
2026-06-07 0.499965 0.626140 0.795004 1.047048 1.432522 2.037590 3.155527
2026-06-14 0.495692 0.624388 0.798200 1.060583 1.467823 2.119477 3.356836
2026-06-21 0.487862 0.617459 0.793809 1.062539 1.484805 2.171592 3.506586
2026-06-28 0.483025 0.614522 0.794934 1.072716 1.515212 2.248127 3.711177
2026-07-05 0.472647 0.603527 0.784139 1.064284 1.514927 2.271209 3.810540